PLAYER TOOL / 02
Know the odds.
Estimate the chance of at least one rarity-level success. This is a probability model, not a prediction of your next roll.
Arrow probability
—with 20 independent rolls
Rolls to target—
Expected rolls, 1/p—
Base-arrow equivalent—
The mean is not a guarantee. The cost display uses the reported crafting ratio, not shop prices.
Read the model before using it
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)n. This assumes independent rolls with a fixed probability. The game’s exclusions and evolving pools may break that assumption.
Presets are reported rarity-tier probabilities. They cannot tell you the chance of an individual Stand. No official per-Stand weights or normal-arrow rates are assumed. Lucky’s printed rates sum to 100.1%; we retain each reported value without silently normalizing.
Changing to a custom probability is a mathematical experiment, not a new game statistic.